You
may not have noticed it, but at this very moment humanity is going a little…
well, extinct,
really. For the first time in history, our species is in decay. A handful of
centuries more, and it could all be over.
This
time, the
doom saying doesn’t come from some wacko prophet. No, it’s
high-ranking UN-officials and respected economists that ring the alarm bell.
The extinction we’re dealing with is locked away in alarming
government reports and ill-omened scientific statistics. Far too few people
read them.
Here
are the figures. By the year 2100, 83 percent of all Spaniards will be gone.
There will be 86 percent less Italians, while in Germany, only 17 percent of
the population will be left. And how about this one: three generations from
now, there will only be half as many people than today.
The doing of some kind of virus or
climate mishap? Far from it. This time, the extinction goes all by
itself. `Demographic
meltdown’, is what they call it. Or `birth collapse’. Or `baby bust’.
It goes
like this. On average, a couple should have at least two children to ensure
the continuation of the species – or more precise: 2,1,
to compensate for children that die early. But all over the world, couples
decide to have fewer children. From 2050 on, this will cause the world’s
population to shrink. And shrink, until there may be no one left.
So why on
earth would humanity want to do that? The reasons are manifold. And in fact,
quite understandable. In the old days, you needed children to work on your
farm, and to look after you when you grew old. You needed lots of them,
because many children died young.
But with
better health care and with social security, that’s all changed. You don't
really need children anymore. What's more, when you
live in a city, children cost you time and money. Besides, more and more
women work. They’ll have children at a later age and bear fewer
children – if they decide to have any children at all, that is.
Anti-conception has nothing to do with it. A religious lifestyle doesn't stop
the trend either. It’s just the course of history
that’s doing us in.
Not impressed yet? Please
let us throw some more figures at you.
At this very moment moment, the populations of over sixty countries are
falling. Fifty years ago, women throughout the world on average had five
children. Today, the average has diminished to 2,7 kids. And all the experts
agree on one thing: that’s just the beginning.
Obviously,
this will change the world we live in completely. Expect a world where
everybody’s ageing and youngsters and children are becoming rare. Expect
empty streets, and empty stores. Expect the world economy to come to a
grinding halt, as there are less and less people around to buy stuff. Expect
governments urging their people to have children, for heaven’s sake, please
do! Expect a world where every country is begging third world immigrants and
refugees to come over.
But then
again, no immigrant would come. The statistics show that the baby bust also strikes in the poorer half
of the globe. In Asia and China, birth rates are falling alarmingly fast. In the Southern
Americas – the same story. Africa is the only continent where the birth
numbers are still high. But then again, the AIDS epidemic causes people to die
at an early age – and this actually is slowing down population growth
tremendously.
Oomph oomph
That’s
neat, you say. So we’re about to join the Woolly Mammoth. Exactly the sort
of thing you wanted to hear when you thought to relax a bit while surfing the
web, right?
Well,
here’s something to cheer you up a little. In fact, it’s very hard to say
if the baby bust that’s hitting us today will actually bring about the end
of the species. With six billion people around today, we don’t exactly have
to wet our pants yet. And then there’s this: 70,000 years ago, when humanity
was still wearing bear skins and saying ‘oomph, oomph’, humankind also
survived near-extinction. Back then, a supervolcano erupted and cut humanity
down to a slim total of 10,000. But we survived all of that.
On the
other hand, there’s absolutely no indication the trend will change. With
fewer and fewer people around, women will be under even greater pressure to
find a job – and have even less children. We can be sure about one thing:
women will never ever again voluntarily have themselves locked away in their
role as child-attendee and kitchen maid.
And then
there is this other nagging problem. As explained elsewhere on this site,
there is a possibility men are becoming less fertile. Just picture it: a world where women don’t want to have
children, and men just can’t. Now
wouldn't that be a pity?
